For a short second, it regarded like a federal commerce court docket would halt President Donald Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs, leaving everybody to surprise what that would imply for worth hikes. However by the top of the next day one other court docket had stepped in so we’re again to questioning when and if reciprocal tariffs and Trump’s proposed 25% Apple tariff will kick in. So you may forgive us if we do not sound very sure about how all of this might have an effect on the worth of the brand new iPhone.
We won’t even assure that it will likely be known as iPhone 17, contemplating Apple might rebrand its working system this fall in order that the present iOS18 is changed by iOS 26.
Apple spent a lot of the early a part of this 12 months dodging tariffs, stockpiling telephones earlier than tariffs took impact and making an exemption listing for a lot of of its merchandise. However its luck appeared to expire after Apple CEO Tim Cook dinner introduced throughout a Could 1 earnings name that US iPhone manufacturing would principally be sourced from India. Just a few weeks later, Trump threatened Apple with a 25% tariff on all iPhones made exterior the US.
Is that tariff on prime of the paused reciprocal tariffs? Whereas it might be unrealistic for Apple to cross alongside the whole value of the tariff to shoppers (who’s going to purchase a $4,000 iPhone?), it additionally appears unlikely that the tech big may take in the prices of a 170% tariff hike (that is 25% Apple tariff + 145% reciprocal tariff on China, the place Apple has produced most of its iPhones).
Plus, there are many elements that may have an effect on the worth of an iPhone, together with manufacturing prices and the general well being of the US financial system. My colleague Patrick Holland has been reviewing telephones for CNET since 2016 and monitoring costs through the years. He says the new iPhone is due for a worth hike no matter what occurs with tariffs.
Apple didn’t reply to a request for remark for an earlier model of this story.
We cannot know the precise worth for the following iPhone till its launch, which is anticipated to be in September. However we have pored over all of the leaks, rumors and predictions about costs and we discovered methods that can assist you save if a brand new iPhone is in your future.
Learn extra: Wish to Purchase a New iPhone? Now’s Not the Time and Here is Why
How tariffs may have an effect on the price of the following iPhone
Amid Trump’s ongoing tariff bender, larger reciprocal tariffs are at the moment on pause. Nevertheless, Trump took to social media on Could 28, threatening Apple with a 25% tariff on all iPhones made exterior the US, though the timeline is unclear. There’s at the moment a ten% baseline tariff on all imports and a 30% tariff on items from China, the place Apple nonetheless manufactures most of its merchandise. These charges can also begin to rise in July when the preliminary tariff pause expires, which may result in larger costs on every little thing — together with the rumored iPhone 17.
The tech big has moved some US iPhone manufacturing from China to India, which at the moment has a decrease tariff charge. Nevertheless, Trump known as out Apple CEO Tim Cook dinner to as an alternative transfer iPhone manufacturing to the US. Most consultants contemplate this an unrealistic demand, particularly within the brief time period, due to larger labor and manufacturing prices within the US. Estimates have recommended {that a} US-made iPhone would value as a lot as $3,500.
That leaves costs for the following iPhone in limbo. Trump’s administration known as the exemption listing “short-term” in early April, saying that exemptions would finish in “a month or two.” Across the identical time, Trump mentioned that semiconductors, which energy tech merchandise, will ultimately be positioned in a unique “tariff bucket.” Nevertheless, no particulars have been shared concerning the timeline or anticipated tariff percentages.
With all of the reprieves showing to be short-term, tariffs may nonetheless probably have an effect on costs by the point the rumored iPhone 17 is predicted to be launched.
If the unique reciprocal tariff pause expires, as an example, taxes on imports from India would rise from 10% to 26% beginning in July. If the 90-day pause for China expires, tariffs on that nation would bounce from 30% to 145% in August. It is unclear if Apple’s 25% tariff can be along with or as an alternative of particular person international locations’ import duties.
Specialists level out {that a} tariff charge hike would not essentially imply an iPhone’s worth would improve on the identical charge however most count on a minimum of some impression.
And the place the cellphone is assembled is just a part of the tariff equation. Apple sources elements for the iPhone from dozens of different international locations, which may additionally probably have an effect on the worth.
Based mostly on the place tariffs stand now, this is how a lot you could possibly probably pay for the following iPhone based mostly on present iPhone 16 costs. These are our estimates and never official pricing from Apple:
Potential iPhone worth with reciprocal tariffs
| Present worth | Present 10% tariff on items from India | Potential 26% tariff for India | Present 30% tariff on items from China | Potential 145% tariff for China | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| iPhone 16E (128GB) | $599 | $659 | $755 | $779 | $1,468 |
| iPhone 16 (128GB) | $829 | $912 | $1,045 | $1,078 | $2,031 |
| iPhone 16 Plus (128GB) | $929 | $1,022 | $1,171 | $1,208 | $2,276 |
| iPhone 16 Professional (128GB) | $999 | $1,099 | $1,259 | $1,299 | $2,448 |
| iPhone 16 Professional Max (256GB) | $1,199 | $1,319 | $1,511 | $1,559 | $2,938 |
| iPhone 16 Professional Max (1TB) | $1,599 | $1,759 | $2,015 | $2,079 | $3,918 |
If the 25% Apple tariff takes impact, this is the potential worth improve for a brand new iPhone, based mostly on the present iPhone 16 costs. Once more, Apple is unlikely to lift costs at a 1-to-1 charge with tariff hikes however this desk incorporates reciprocal and potential Apple particular tariffs to calculate potential costs:
Potential iPhone costs with reciprocal and Apple tariffs mixed
| Present worth | Present 10% tariff on items from India | Potential 26% tariff for India | Present 30% tariff on items from China | Potential 145% tariff for China | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| iPhone 16E (128GB) | $599 | $809 | $904 | $928 | $1,617 |
| iPhone 16 (128GB) | $829 | $1,119 | $1,252 | $1,285 | $2,238 |
| iPhone 16 Plus (128GB) | $929 | $1,254 | $1,403 | $1,440 | $2,508 |
| iPhone 16 Professional (128GB) | $999 | $1,349 | $1,508 | $1,548 | $2,697 |
| iPhone 16 Professional Max (256GB) | $1,199 | $1,619 | $1,810 | $1,858 | $3,237 |
| iPhone 16 Professional Max (1TB) | $1,599 | $2,159 | $2,414 | $2,478 | $4,317 |
What else may trigger the brand new iPhone’s worth to extend?
Trump instantly criticized retailers like Amazon and Walmart once they recommended that tariffs may lead to larger costs so it stands to purpose that Apple will not straight blame tariffs for potential worth hikes that would provoke a Trump tirade.
Reasonably, Apple may attribute the worth improve to improved options and design prices. No matter tariffs, Apple has plans to lift iPhone costs this 12 months, The Wall Avenue Journal reported.
Specialists say Apple could also be overdue for a worth improve anyway. It has been 5 years because the primary iPhone mannequin elevated in worth and every iteration of the iPhone typically improves on options from the earlier model.
Holland notes that the bottom iPhone mannequin hasn’t gone up in worth since 2020. His analysis factors to the usual iPhone mannequin’s worth growing roughly each 5 years, between $50 and $130. Based mostly on this proof and the iPhone 16’s present worth of $829, we may count on the brand new iPhone to value someplace between $879 and $959.
What’s going to the iPhone 17 Air value?
Early rumors had the iPhone 17 Air topping the iPhone Professional in worth. Nevertheless, a March Bloomberg report recommended the cellphone may value about $900, just like the present iPhone 16 Plus’s price ticket. These estimates are based mostly on the present prices and should not embrace the potential impression tariffs may have on an ultrathin iPhone’s worth.
How the financial system may have an effect on iPhone costs
Uncertainty within the US financial system — partly due to the aforementioned tariff turmoil — has left many cautious about what’s to come back. Whereas the latest settlement with China to pause tariffs helped the inventory market to principally get better from the dive it took after Trump’s Liberation Day, that reprieve gives solely short-term reduction.
Considerations concerning the dangers of upper unemployment and better inflation have left the Federal Reserve in wait-and-see mode for reducing rates of interest. Increased rates of interest could cause corporations like Apple to tug again on spending and funding. Mixed with larger tariffs, that pullback may probably result in international provide chain disruptions. Fewer iPhones accessible out there may result in larger costs.
If inflation resurges, rising prices may power Apple to extend the following iPhone’s worth.
One tiny shiny facet, in principle, is {that a} weakening financial system may power Apple to carry off on elevating costs so it will possibly keep aggressive. However that won’t supply a lot comfort in the event you’re anxious about spending cash due to a possible recession.
Will older iPhones value extra, too?
One approach to save on Apple merchandise is to purchase final 12 months’s mannequin as an alternative of the latest launch. Nevertheless, if the brand new iPhone is dramatically dearer when it is launched, demand may improve for the older fashions and that would result in worth hikes on older fashions, too.
The flip facet of that is that if the brand new iPhone’s costs rise and you’ve got an older iPhone, your previous iPhone would additionally possible improve in worth, Holland mentioned.
Buying and selling or promoting a used iPhone will help offset the fee in the event you do determine to purchase the brand new iPhone.
Different methods Apple may elevate costs
Even when Apple decides to carry the following iPhone’s worth regular, there are different methods for the tech big to recoup elevated prices.
Apple may probably offset the impression of tariffs by elevating the worth on its companies — together with its music, information and information plans — in accordance with provide chain professional Joe Hudicka.
“We’ll see these markups within the subscription companies first as a result of they will seem smaller,” he mentioned. “Shoppers will nonetheless pay, simply not suddenly.”
Ought to we imagine rumors and hypothesis about iPhone costs?
So critically, how a lot is a brand new iPhone going to value? The reality is, we will not say with any certainty what the ultimate numbers can be. Our assessments are based mostly on ever-changing tariff insurance policies, previous pricing traits, rumors and leaks which might be typically based mostly on insider data. However till Apple releases the rumored iPhone 17, we will solely supply our greatest estimates for the way a lot the ultimate price ticket can be.
