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    Home»Machine Learning & Research»How We Guess Towards the Bitter Lesson – O’Reilly
    Machine Learning & Research

    How We Guess Towards the Bitter Lesson – O’Reilly

    Oliver ChambersBy Oliver ChambersMarch 7, 2026No Comments19 Mins Read
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    How We Guess Towards the Bitter Lesson – O’Reilly
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    I’ve been telling myself and anybody who will hear that Agent Abilities level towards a brand new form of future AI + human information financial system. It’s not simply Abilities, after all. It’s additionally issues like Jesse Vincent’s Superpowers and Anthropic’s not too long ago launched Plugins for Claude Cowork. For those who haven’t encountered these but, maintain studying. It ought to turn out to be clear as we go alongside.

    It feels a bit like I’m assembling an image puzzle the place all of the items aren’t but on the desk. I’m beginning to see a sample, however I’m undecided it’s proper, and I need assistance discovering the lacking items. Let me clarify among the shapes I’ve in hand and the sample they’re beginning to present me, after which I need to ask on your assist filling within the gaps.

    Programming two several types of pc on the identical time

    Phillip Carter wrote a bit some time again known as “LLMs Are Bizarre Computer systems” that landed laborious in my thoughts and wouldn’t depart. He famous that we’re now working with two essentially completely different sorts of pc on the identical time. One can write a sonnet however struggles to do math. The opposite does math simply however couldn’t write a sonnet to avoid wasting its metaphorical life.

    Agent Abilities would be the begin of a solution to the query of what the interface layer between these two sorts of computation appears like. A Ability is a package deal of context (Markdown directions, area information, and examples) mixed with device calls (deterministic code that does the issues LLMs are dangerous at). The context speaks the language of the probabilistic machine, whereas the instruments converse the language of the deterministic one.

    Think about you’re an skilled DevOps engineer and also you need to give an AI agent the flexibility to diagnose manufacturing incidents the way in which you’ll. The context a part of that Ability contains your structure overview, your runbook for frequent failure modes, the heuristics you’ve developed through the years, and annotated examples of previous incidents. That’s the half that speaks to the probabilistic machine. The device half contains precise code that queries your monitoring methods, pulls log entries, checks service well being endpoints, and runs diagnostic scripts. Every device name saves the mannequin from burning tokens on work that deterministic code does higher, sooner, and extra reliably.

    The Ability is neither the context nor the instruments. It’s the mixture. Professional judgment about when to examine the database connection pool married to the flexibility to really examine it. We’ve had runbooks earlier than (context with out instruments). We’ve had monitoring scripts earlier than (instruments with out context). What we haven’t had is a option to package deal them collectively for a machine that may learn the runbook and execute the scripts, utilizing judgment to resolve which script to run subsequent based mostly on what the final one returned.

    This sample reveals up throughout each information area. A monetary analyst’s Ability may mix valuation methodology with instruments that pull real-time market knowledge and run DCF calculations. A authorized Ability may pair a agency’s method to contract evaluation with instruments that extract and examine particular clauses throughout paperwork. In every case, the dear factor isn’t the information alone or the instruments alone. It’s the combination of skilled workflow logic that orchestrates when and tips on how to use every device, knowledgeable by area information that offers the LLM the judgment to make good choices in context.

    Software program that saves tokens

    In “Software program Survival 3.0,” Steve Yegge requested what sorts of software program artifacts survive in a world the place AI can generate disposable software program on the fly? His reply: software program that saves tokens. Binary instruments with confirmed options to frequent issues make sense when reuse is sort of free and regenerating them is token-costly.

    Abilities match this area of interest. A well-crafted Ability offers an LLM the context it wants (which prices tokens) but in addition offers it instruments that save tokens by offering deterministic, dependable outcomes. The developer’s job more and more turns into making good calls about this distinction: What needs to be context (versatile, expressive, probabilistic) and what needs to be a device (environment friendly, deterministic, reusable)?

    An LLM’s context window is a finite and costly useful resource. The whole lot in it prices tokens, and every little thing in it competes for the mannequin’s consideration. A Ability that dumps a whole firm information base into the context window is a poorly designed Ability. A well-designed one is selective: It offers the mannequin precisely the context it must make good choices about which instruments to name and when. It is a type of engineering self-discipline that doesn’t have an important analogue in conventional software program growth. It’s nearer to what an skilled instructor does when deciding what to inform a pupil earlier than sending them off to unravel an issue—what Matt Beane, writer of The Ability Code, calls “scaffolding,” sharing not every little thing you already know however the correct issues on the proper degree of element to allow logic within the second.

    AI is a social and cultural know-how

    This notion of saving tokens is a bridge to the work of Henry Farrell, Alison Gopnik, Cosma Shalizi, and James Evans. They make the case that enormous fashions shouldn’t be considered primarily as clever brokers, however as a brand new form of cultural and social know-how, permitting people to reap the benefits of data different people have amassed. Yegge’s remark suits proper into this framework. Each new social and cultural know-how tends to outlive as a result of it saves cognition. We be taught from one another so we don’t have to find every little thing for the primary time. Alfred Korzybski referred to language, the primary of those human social and cultural applied sciences, and all of people who adopted, as “time-binding.” (I’ll add that every advance in time binding creates consternation. Take into account Socrates, whose diatribes towards writing because the enemy of reminiscence have been handed right down to us by Plato utilizing that exact same advance in time binding that Socrates decried.)

    I’m not satisfied that the concept AI could at some point turn out to be an impartial intelligence is misguided. However at current, AI is a symbiosis of human and machine intelligence, the newest chapter of an extended story during which advances within the velocity, persistence, and attain of communications weaves humanity into a worldwide mind. I’ve a set of priors that say (till I’m satisfied in any other case) that AI can be an extension of the human information financial system, not a alternative for it. In any case, as Claude informed me once I requested whether or not it was a employee or a device, “I don’t provoke. I’ve by no means woken up wanting to put in writing a poem or clear up an issue. My exercise is totally reactive – I exist in response to prompts. Even when given huge latitude (‘work out the very best method’), the truth that I ought to determine one thing out comes from outdoors me.”

    The shift from a chatbot responding to particular person prompts to brokers working in a loop marks an enormous step within the progress in the direction of extra autonomous AI, however even then, some human established the aim that set the agent in movement. I say this at the same time as I’m conscious that long-running loops turn out to be more and more tough to tell apart from volition and that a lot human habits can be set in movement by others. However I’ve but to see any convincing proof of Synthetic Volition. And for that motive, we want to consider mechanisms and incentives for people to proceed to create and share new information, placing AIs to work on questions that they won’t ask on their very own.

    On X, somebody not too long ago requested Boris Cherny how come there are a hundred-plus open engineering positions at Anthropic if Claude is writing 100% of the code. His reply was made that very same level: “Somebody has to immediate the Claudes, discuss to prospects, coordinate with different groups, resolve what to construct subsequent. Engineering is altering and nice engineers are extra essential than ever.”

    On March 26, be part of Addy Osmani and Tim O’Reilly at AI Codecon: Software program Craftsmanship within the Age of AI, the place an all-star lineup of consultants will go deeper into orchestration, agent coordination, and the brand new expertise builders must construct wonderful software program that creates worth for all members. Join free right here.

    Tacit information made executable

    An enormous quantity of specialised, typically tacit, information is embedded in workflows. The best way an skilled developer debugs a manufacturing subject. The best way a monetary analyst stress-tests a mannequin. This data has traditionally been very laborious to switch. You realized it by apprenticeship, by doing, by being round individuals who knew how.

    Matt Beane, writer of The Ability Code, calls apprenticeship “the 160,000 12 months old style hidden in plain sight.” He finds that efficient ability growth follows a typical sample of three C’s: problem, complexity, and connection. The skilled buildings challenges on the proper degree, exposes the novice to the total complexity of the larger image somewhat than shielding them from it, and builds a connection that makes the novice keen to battle and the skilled keen to take a position.

    Designing a very good Ability requires the same craft. It’s a must to work out what an skilled really does. What are the choice factors, the heuristics, the issues they discover {that a} novice wouldn’t? After which how do you encode that right into a kind a machine can act on? Most Abilities at this time are nearer to the handbook than to the grasp. Determining tips on how to make Abilities that transmit not simply information however judgment is without doubt one of the most attention-grabbing design challenges on this area.

    However Matt additionally flags a paradox: the higher we get at encoding skilled judgment into Abilities, the much less we may have novices working alongside consultants, and that’s precisely the connection that produces the following technology of consultants. If we’re not cautious, we’ll seize at this time’s tacit information whereas quietly shutting down the system that generates tomorrow’s.

    Jesse Vincent’s Superpowers complement this image. If a Ability is like handing a colleague an in depth playbook for a specific job, a Superpower is extra just like the skilled habits and instincts that make somebody efficient at every little thing they do. Superpowers are meta-skills. They don’t inform the agent what to do. They form the way it thinks about what to do. As Jesse put it to me the opposite day, Superpowers tried to seize every little thing he’d realized in 30 years as a software program developer.

    As workflows change to incorporate AI brokers, Abilities and Superpowers turn out to be a mechanism for sharing tacit skilled information and judgment with these brokers. That makes Abilities doubtlessly very precious but in addition raises questions on who controls them and who advantages.

    Matt identified to me that many professions will resist the conversion of their experience into Abilities. He famous: “There’s a large showdown between the surgical career and Intuitive Surgical on this proper now — Intuitive Surgical with its da Vinci 5 surgical robotic will solely allow you to purchase or lease it if you happen to signal away the rights to your telemetry as a surgeon. Decrease standing surgeons take the deal. High tier establishments are preventing.”

    It appears to me that the repeated narrative of the AI labs that they’re creating AI that may make people redundant somewhat than empowering them will solely enhance resistance to information sharing. I consider they need to as a substitute acknowledge the chance that lies in making a brand new form of marketplace for human experience.

    Safety, discovery, and the lacking plumbing

    Abilities are simply Markdown directions and context. You can encrypt them at relaxation and in transit, however at execution time, the key sauce is essentially plaintext within the context window. The answer may be what MCP already partially allows: splitting a Ability right into a public interface and a server-side execution layer the place the proprietary information lives. The tacit information stays in your server whereas the agent solely sees the interface.

    However a part of the great thing about Abilities proper now could be the truth that they are surely only a folder which you could transfer round and modify. That is just like the marvelous days of the early net when you may imitate somebody’s new HTML performance just by clicking “View Supply.” This was a recipe for speedy, leapfrogging innovation. It could be much better to ascertain norms for attribution, fee, and reuse than to place up synthetic limitations. There are helpful classes from open supply software program licenses and from voluntary fee mechanisms like these utilized by Substack. However the particulars matter, and I don’t suppose anybody has totally labored them out but.

    In the meantime, the invention drawback will develop bigger. Vercel’s Abilities market already has greater than 60,000 Abilities. How nicely will ability search work when there are tens of millions? How do brokers be taught which Abilities can be found, that are greatest, and what they value? The analysis drawback is completely different from net search in an important approach: testing whether or not a Ability is good requires really working it, which is dear and nondeterministic. You may’t simply crawl and index. I don’t think about a testing regime a lot as some suggestions mechanism by which the effectiveness of explicit Abilities is realized and handed on by brokers over time. There could also be some future equal to Pagerank and the opposite sorts of alerts which have made Google search so efficient, one that’s generated by suggestions collected over time by brokers as expertise are tried, revised, and tried once more over time.

    I’m watching a number of initiatives tackling items of this: MCP Server Playing cards, AI Playing cards, Google’s A2A protocol, and fee protocols from Google and Stripe. These are all a very good begin, however I believe a lot extra has but to be created. For a historic comparability, you may say that each one that is on the CGI stage within the growth of dynamic web sites.

    What occurs after the bitter lesson?

    Richard Sutton’s “Bitter Lesson” is the fly within the ointment. His argument is that within the historical past of AI, normal strategies leveraging computation have at all times ended up beating approaches that attempt to encode human information. Chess engines that encoded grandmaster heuristics misplaced to brute-force engines. NLP methods constructed on rigorously constructed grammars misplaced to statistical fashions skilled on extra knowledge. AlphaGo beat Lee Sedol after coaching on human video games, however then fell in flip to AlphaZero, which realized Go by itself.

    I had my very own painful expertise of the pre-AI bitter lesson when O’Reilly launched GNN, the primary net portal. We curated the record of the very best web sites. Yahoo! determined to catalog all of them, however even they have been outrun by Google’s algorithmic curation, which produced a novel catalog of the very best websites for any given question, finally billions of instances a day.

    Steve Yegge put it bluntly to me: “Abilities are a wager towards the bitter lesson.” He’s proper. AI’s capabilities could fully outrun human information and expertise. And as soon as the information embedded in a Ability makes it into the coaching knowledge, the Ability turns into redundant.

    Or does it?

    Clay Christensen articulated what he known as the legislation of conservation of engaging income: when a product turns into commoditized, worth migrates to an adjoining layer. Clay and I bonded over this concept once we first met on the Open Supply Enterprise Convention in 2004. Clay talked about his new “legislation.” I talked a few recurring sample I used to be seeing within the historical past of computing, which was main me within the route of what we have been quickly to name Net 2.0: Microsoft beat IBM as a result of they understood that software program turned extra precious as soon as PC {hardware} was a commodity. Google understood how knowledge turned extra precious when open supply and open protocols commoditized the software program platform. Commoditization doesn’t destroy worth, it strikes it.

    Even when the bitter lesson commoditizes information, what turns into precious subsequent? I believe there are a number of candidates.

    First, style and curation. When everybody has entry to the identical commodity information, the flexibility to pick out, mix, and apply it with judgment turns into precious. Steve Jobs did this when the remainder of the business was racing towards the commodity PC. He created a novel integration of {hardware}, software program, and design that remodeled commodity parts into one thing treasured. The Ability equal won’t be “right here’s tips on how to do X” (which the mannequin already is aware of) however “right here’s how we do X, with the particular judgment calls and high quality requirements that outline our method.” That’s more durable to soak up into coaching knowledge as a result of it’s not simply information, it’s values.

    You may see this sample repeat throughout one commodity market after one other. That is the essence of style, for instance, but in addition applies to areas as various as espresso, water, shopper items, and cars. In his essay “The Delivery of the Massive Lovely Artwork Market,” artwork critic Dave Hickey calls how commodities are became a form of “artwork market,” the place one thing is offered on the premise of what it means somewhat than simply what it does. Proudly owning a Mac somewhat than a PC meant one thing.

    Second, the human contact. As economist Adam Ozimek identified, folks nonetheless go take heed to reside music from native bands regardless of the abundance of recorded music from the world’s best performers. The human contact is what economists name a “regular good”: demand for it goes up as earnings goes up. As I mentioned with Claude in “Why AI Wants Us,” human individuality is a fount of creativity. AI with out people is a form of recorded music. AI plus people is reside.

    Third, freshness. Abilities that encode quickly altering workflows, present device configurations, or evolving greatest practices will at all times have a temporal benefit. There’s alpha in realizing one thing first.

    Fourth, instruments themselves. The bitter lesson applies to the information that lives within the context portion of a Ability. It could not apply in the identical option to the deterministic instruments that save tokens or do issues the mannequin can’t do by considering more durable. And instruments, not like context, will be protected behind APIs, metered, and monetized.

    Fifth, coordination and orchestration. Even when particular person Abilities get absorbed into mannequin information, the patterns for a way Abilities compose, negotiate, and hand off to one another could not. The choreography of a fancy workflow may be the layer the place worth accumulates because the information layer commoditizes.

    However extra importantly, the concept any information that turns into accessible mechanically turns into the property of any LLM will not be foreordained. It’s an artifact of an IP regime that the AI labs have adopted for their very own profit: a variation of the “empty lands” argument that European colonialists used to justify their taking of others’ assets. AI has been developed in an IP wild west. That won’t proceed. The achievement of AI labs’ imaginative and prescient of a world the place their merchandise soak up all human information after which put people out of labor leaves them with out most of the prospects they presently depend on. Not solely that, they themselves are being reminded why IP legislation exists, as Chinese language fashions copy their advances by exfiltrating their weights. There’s a historic parallel in the way in which that US publishing firms ignored European copyrights till they themselves had homegrown belongings to guard.

    The place we at the moment are

    What I’m beginning to see are the primary halting steps towards a brand new software program ecosystem the place the “applications” are mixtures of pure language and code, the “runtime” is a big language mannequin, and the “customers” are AI brokers in addition to people. Abilities, Superpowers, and information plugins may symbolize the primary sensible mechanism for making tacit information accessible to computational brokers.

    A number of gaps maintain developing, although. Composability: the true energy could come from Abilities that work collectively, very similar to Unix utilities piped collectively. How do belief, fee, and high quality propagate by way of a sequence of Ability invocations? Belief and safety: Simon Willison has written about device poisoning and immediate injection dangers in MCP. The safety mannequin for composable, agent-discovered Abilities is basically unsolved. Analysis: we don’t have good methods to confirm Ability high quality besides by working them, which is dear and nondeterministic.

    After which there’s the financial plumbing, which is to me essentially the most evident hole. Take into account Anthropic’s Cowork plugins. They’re precisely the sample I’ve been describing, tacit information made executable, delivered at enterprise scale. However there isn’t a mechanism for the area consultants whose information makes plugins precious to receives a commission for them. If the AI labs believed in a future the place AI extends the human information financial system somewhat than changing it, they’d be constructing fee rails alongside the plugin structure. The truth that they aren’t tells you one thing about their precise concept of worth.

    For those who’re engaged on any of this, whether or not ability marketplaces and discovery, composability patterns, safety fashions, high quality and analysis, attribution and compensation, or safety fashions, I need to hear from you.

    The way forward for software program isn’t simply code. It’s information, packaged for machines, traded between brokers, and, if we get the infrastructure proper, creating worth that flows again to the people whose experience and distinctive views make all of it work.

    Due to Andrew Odewahn, Angie Jones, Claude Opus 4.6, James Cham, Jeff Weinstein, Jonathan Hassell, Matt Beane, Mike Loukides, Peyton Joyce, Sruly Rosenblat, Steve Yegge, and Tadas Antanavicius for feedback on drafts of this piece. You made it a lot stronger together with your insights and objections.

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